Voting trends in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun shift alongside the Balance of Power.
Joseph Pontisso, Senior Staff Writer
On September 16, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party lost its seat in the Montreal riding of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun to YvesFrançois Blanchet’s Bloc Québécois — despite the Bloc only registering 28.2% of the vote share in the riding, according to Elections Canada. The Bloc win comes less than three months after another notable Liberal by-election loss in Toronto-St. Paul’s. While the Bloc win will not have any real effect on parliamentary proceedings, it is a strong indication that the balance of power in parliament has shifted away from the Liberal Party and towards the parties capable of propping it up until the next federal election. The Montreal by-election played out as a remarkably tight three-way race that allowed Bloc candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé to win with just 28.2% of the vote. Laura Palestini, the Liberal candidate, received just 269 votes fewer, while NDP candidate Craig Sauvé finished right behind with 26.1%. The result is a dramatic change from the 2021 federal election, where Liberal candidate David Lametti won the riding with 42.9% of the vote, more than the total for the Bloc and NDP combined. LaSalle-Émard-Verdun had been widely regarded as a Liberal stronghold, portions of which once formed the riding that former Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin held for 20 years. Liberal strategist Andrew Perez called the result “yet another nail in Justin Trudeau’s coffin,” according to Global News, while former NDP leader Tom Mulcair said in a piece for the Montreal Gazette that the result “sent shock waves through Trudeau’s already nervous caucus.” The Liberals themselves seemed split on whether or not to acknowledge the result as significant. Global News reported Finance Minister Melanie Joly as saying that the party had heard “loud and clear” from voters, while on CTV News, Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson argued in contrast that “at the end of the day, in a byelection, you’re actually not threatening the government.” Trudeau was recorded taking the middle ground, saying that “it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold Verdun, but there’s more work to do, and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” according to CBC. The result is an indication of both changing public support in Quebec itself, and of a shift of power within the house of commons away from the governing Liberals and towards Canada’s other major political parties. Bloc leader Blanchet said that the win “allows us to speak directly to the English community,” no doubt looking to broaden its support base as it looks to use its newfound leverage against the minority Liberal government, which can no longer assume to pass confidence votes after the NDP pulled out of their mutual confidence-and-supply agreement last month. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre will likely continue to table no-confidence motions throughout the fall, meaning that the continuation of the current government depends directly on either Bloc or NDP support. While the Bloc supported the Liberals in the first of these motions this September, Blanchet has given the Liberals a deadline of October 29 to agree to legislation involving pension increases, or else the Bloc will vote with Conservatives to topple to current government. As Canadians look towards to the next federal election, it remains to be seen which of these parties will emerge as the frontrunner in Quebec. However, the days of uncontested Liberal dominance in a small riding in southern Montreal are over for the immediate future, likely pointing to a more widespread change.
